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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|